GOUCAP
Sector

Mining and natural resources

Valuation of cash flows, instruments and projects exposed to commodity, operating, schedule and technical uncertainty.

The decision

In mining, price and volume are not enough: recovery, costs, royalties, asset life, implementation and evidence quality materially change the economic view.

When to engage
  • Valuation of projects and linked instruments
  • Price, volume, cost and schedule scenarios
  • Opinions and support for complex decisions
Deliverables
  • FCFF model and cash-flow reconciliation
  • Technical and commercial assumptions register
  • Sensitivity and downside scenarios
  • Opinion or executive memorandum
Method
  1. 01

    Separation of resource, production and financial flow

  2. 02

    Dated and sourced assumptions

  3. 03

    Coherent, non-additive scenarios

  4. 04

    Conclusions proportionate to evidence

Selected mandate

Instrument linked to a large iron-ore asset

Analysis of debenture and royalty cash flows with an estimated present value of US$386.5 million; the figure does not represent the mineral asset value.

Next step

Discuss the decision before assumptions become fixed.

Discuss a project